The Path Ahead for the S&P 500 e-Mini Futures (Dec. Contract) | Issued Thursday, Nov. 29th @ 9:49AM

The Path Ahead for the S&P 500 e-Mini Futures (Dec. Contract) |  Issued Thursday, Nov. 29th @ 9:49AM

Executive Market Briefing from The Research Desk of Efrem Hoffman | Issued Thursday, Nov 29th, 2012 @ 9:49 AM | The Path Ahead for the S&P 500 e-Mini Futures Market ( Same Analysis applies to the S&P 500 Cash Market, especially as we are entering the end of Dec. Futures expiration)

Below is the latest Time Map of Current Risk Events and upcoming Trading Opportunities, as we enter into Month end & Early Dec. 2012.

(Click on the Image to Enlarge):

S&P 500 e-Mini Futures Time Map — overlaid on 5 min. chart; For Big Picture View — see Monday’s Commentary and most recent Time Map Video — posted in Time Map Section

By Combining the Time Map Display above with High Conviction & Proprietary Analytic Insights offered in the recent Time Map video (posted last week — valid for several weeks),

you will be able to see the forward path of the S&P 500 market.

With the Time Map on your side, you will now know, with confidence, the optimal time frames to focus your observation of market action — including the time frames to apply for spotting the entry levels for the upcoming market opportunity, as well as the specific time frames to apply for both sticking with the trend (without getting chopped up in noise) and identifying the strategic exit level.

The time-line of the expected opportunity is also precisely identified with key support & resistance, and volatility escalation trigger levels (we also refer to them from time to time as Volatility Attack Points). When relevant updates are in order — i.e. as we are approaching key decision levels or triggering key volatility levels and entering extreme risk intervals — they will be posted in the key levels daily Blog section of TradingTimeAndPrice.com.

Moreover, vertical lines will also be overlaid on the Time Map to indicate important calendar dates of upcoming High Potential Risk and Opportunity Events –

– Pay particular attention to postings as we both approach these key date-lines and pass between them.

You should also review the Time Map section to observe the latest Momentum Jet Streams impacting the S&P 500.

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From the Trading Research Desk of Efrem Hoffman: Intra-Day Market Risk Intelligence for the S&P 500 e-Mini | Friday, Sept. 14th, 2012

Disclaimer:  The content of this Blog Memo is strictly for informational research purposes only. It is not a solicitation to buy and/or sell securities of any kind. This Blog content does not serve as an investment and/or trading recommendation or advisory. To satisfy your obligation as a subscriber, before reading anything further on the TradingTimeAndPrice Blog, it is both prudent and required that YOU, the USER, become aware — and fully acknowledge — the terms set forth in the full list of Disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Disclaimers, Policy Statements, and Terms of Usage, as displayed and referenced (via links) at the base of each TradingTimeAndPrice.com web page.  

From the Trading Research Desk of Efrem Hoffman: Intra-Day Market Risk Intelligence for the S&P 500 e-Mini Futures (all time references are based on Eastern Time; and all prices are calibrated to the December Futures Contract for:

Friday, September, 14th, 2012

We delayed updating market levels from Tuesday, September 11th, 2012 until today in order to adjust them as near as possible to the influential FOMC Policy Actions. In light of the Fed Policy Announcement and Market Response on Thursday, September 13th, 2012, the S&P 500 e-Mini December Contract crossed through a critical area of resistance at 1440.25; which will likely give was to a new trading range as we progress into Sept 24th, and on into the second and third week of October, 2012. Although yesterday’s market action had marginal conviction when compared with the volume of trade registered on Sept 7th, 2012, the floor of base-line price support has risen dramatically for this interim time-zone. The specific time-frames and trading levels of resistance and support are identified below:

Each trading day TradingTimeAndPrice.com applies a Proprietary Signal Processing Technique based on Quantum Encryption and Mathematical Gaming Strategies to identify the dominant trading time frames that market influence-rs and decision-makers will be measuring value and tracking their indicators. What you will find when using this industry-first market intelligence is that your favorite trading setups will become sharply enhanced with significantly reduced market noise. You will also discover that the decision-makers influencing forward market action on the upside (at key resistance levels) and downside (at key support levels) will often be measuring market value from the perspective of different time frames. To best monitor the volume levels at areas of market divergence, it is suggested that users follow the relevant time frames given  – otherwise you will be comparing Apples to Oranges.  The following section will highlight these time-scales of focus for each significant resistance and support zone.

Relevant Trading Chart Time Frame to Plot S&P 500 e-Mini Market Action and Corresponding Indicators:

To identify Near-term Bearish Market Divergences near resistance, that have the potential to form now into late September, it is best to apply the 34 minute and 21 minute charts.

To monitor Intra-day Selling Pressure, it is best to apply the 5 minute and 3 minute charts.

To monitor Intra-day Buying Pressure and Bullish Market Divergences near support, it is best to apply the 8 minute and 5 minute charts.

Any trades posted above the 1464.50 to 1465.50 price zone is considered dangerously overvalued and is ripe for short sellers to fade the market’s recent advance. 

Critical Inter-Day Overhead Resistance Cluster where bears will also attempt to attack bulls today, in the event of a secondary up-spike are:  1469.25 to 1470.50 and 1470.75 to 1471.50

First Significant Zone of  Near-Term Support to lock-in profits on short positions:  1440.25

Secondary Zone of Support:  1434.75

Base-Line Support: 1422.50, 1418.75 to 1418, and 1416 ; in the event of a strong news driven down-spike, then 1409.75

Moreover, take note that a much higher mathematical edge exists when the Reward to Extreme Risk levels are above 2 to 1 or higher. When calculating these ratios, it can be helpful to Calibrate Risk with the Extreme Level of Resistance, while at the same time aligning the Reward with the First Zone of Support.  At this time, the corresponding price zone that satisfies this criterion is 1457 to 1458.50.

Take Note of a tweet posted on TradingTimeAndPrice.com Twitter Handle @TradinTimePrice on September 12th, 2012; it stated that –

–  The S&P 100 and S&P 500 component stock, TXN, Narrowed Guidance with Earnings exceeding its Estimate — Current Observation of Composite Market Influence-rs point to TXN asserting a Bullish Volatility Bias when its price level exceeds $29.93 — thereby giving a potential positive catalysts for a short-term pop in technology heavy-weight indices. There are also several stocks in the Investor Business Daily, IBD-50 Index, which show both signs of strength and renewed life for this fall period. As conditions warrant, some of these equities will be featured as premium content on our affiliate site, NakedSwanTrading.com — as well as updated on its Twitter Feed @NakedSwanTrader

The Bottom Line – The U.S. Markets are entering a period of dangerous valuation, especially when measured in terms of Euros or Gold. The rally in the Euro of late is giving a short term tail-wind to the U.S. Equity and Futures markets — but only in US Dollar Nominal Value. It is concerning that the S&P has stalled out and is even losing momentum and absolute value relative to the advance in Precious Metals and other leading international media of exchange. In real-terms, the potential for volatile market down-spikes will remain at elevated levels into the end of September and early October, and continue to endanger the markets with increasingly higher down-volume compared to up-volume, particularly during interim market reversal days.

NOTE:  To best monitor the volume levels, it is highly suggested that users regularly follow the relevant time frames highlighted and updated daily, to: (1) Keep You Out of the Fog as to who the Key Market Players are; and (ii) better Align Your Comparative Valuation Decision Process – to particularly avoid situations where you may inadvertently be comparing Apples to OrangesDesigned to Help You Trade Outside the Intra-Day Market Noise.

Intra-Month Overhead Resistance in the scenario of a strong news-driven event: starts out at 1474.50 to 1475.50 and extends up to near 1478.

Long-Term Inter-Month Balance Zone Ceiling denoting Extremely Dangerous Valuation is: 1484.50 to 1488.50 — In the event that this extreme price zone is touched this month of September, be very careful for a vicious Bearish Key Reversal or Strong Down-Wave to initiate on or somewhere inside the Date Range of September 21st, 23rd, 24th, 25th, 26th, 27th, 28th, 29th, and possibly holding off until early October — particularly on or before October 3rd, 2012, if it hasn’t already started selling off hard near or after September 24th.

The relevant time frame to appropriately identify the Bearish Reversal Bar starts out on the 34 minute chart, and then progresses up to the 55 minute chart as we advance closer to the end of the date range laid out.

After the downdraft ensues toward Key Support Levels — 1440.25, 1435, and potentially 1411.75 — the 5 minute, 8 minute, and 13 minute charts are the appropriate incremental time frames — respectively for each level — to identify bullish divergences for locking in profit, and possibly reversing toward a bullish bias thereafter.

For date ranges beyond the interval discussed, it is more suitable to observe market action on the following time scales:

To monitor Inter-Month Selling Pressure in the event of Long-term Bearish Market Divergences, it is best to apply the 987 minute, 233 minute, and 144 minute charts.

To monitor Inter-Month Buying Pressure and Associated Market Divergences corresponding to the Long-Term Critical Market Balance Point (see section below), it is best to apply the 377 minute and 233 minute charts

The 1342.75 level is the Long-Term Critical Price Balance Point that separates a market structure that is topping from one that will come under attack by a strong downdraft — this level will become evident to traders later in the year or toward the second quarter of 2013. The rolling and incremental topping process of late will continue to trap an increasing number of bulls on the wrong side of the market as the election period and the fall unfolds — just as the US markets complete a bearish trading setup, over 90 years in the making.

This will lead to another period of severe market turbulence as in 2008, particularly on a high volume break below 1342.75 — into the 2nd quarter of 2013, and resulting in a bear market for several years to come. The bottom line is that market perceptions of price momentum change is in a process of completing one last drive to a peak — like in 2007 and 2008, before a sharp plunge in market sentiment, which will likely shake the confidence of both the pros and the public at large.

Live Market Intelligence Webinars will be held throughout the upcoming period to alert premium subscribers of the impending risk events. We are also planning to host a series of on-line forums and round-table with industry partners and media throughout the fall and winter months with regard to the developing market scenario.

Special invitations will be sent out to our Linked-In Network of Industry Professionals — To stay in the loop, you are welcome to follow Efrem Hoffman on Linked-In, and on TradingTimeAndPrice.com Twitter Handle: @TradinTimePrice [/box]

Disclaimer:  The content of this Blog Memo is strictly for informational research purposes only. It is not a solicitation to buy and/or sell securities of any kind. This Blog content does not serve as an investment and/or trading recommendation or advisory. To satisfy your obligation as a subscriber, before reading anything further on the TradingTimeAndPrice Blog, it is both prudent and required that YOU, the USER, become aware — and fully acknowledge — the terms set forth in the full list of Disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Disclaimers, Policy Statements, and Terms of Usage, as displayed and referenced (via links) at the base of each TradingTimeAndPrice.com web page.  

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