Executive Market Briefing Issued Oct 8th, 2012 : Bottled Energy in the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 to set off a Tail-Risk Event this October

Executive Market Briefing from The Research Desk of Efrem Hoffman | Issued Monday, October 8th, 2012 |  Bottled Energy in the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 to set off a Tail-Risk Event this October.

What Cycles do You Identify when looking for Behavioral Inflection Points? – 

–  Cycles of Fear & Greed in the Price Structure of Financial Markets or Decision Cycles that actually Drive Market Action!

Listen-up Fund Managers, Futures/Forex Traders, & Policy-Makers looking for a fresh new source of Tail-Risk Intelligence & Actionable Decision-Making.

16 years of Research on Market Uncertainty is being launched Out of the Lab and into Your Trading Room:

Efrem Hoffman, Global Macro Strategist at TradingTimeAndPrice.com welcomes the professional trading community to join him live this Tues, Oct 9 @ 2:00 PM ET for a special 30 min Executive Briefing on FuturesTalk — Powered by WorldWideTraders.com

Instant access: http://futurestalk.omnovia.com/ClassRoom Password: cosmic; Sign In: your email address.

You will learn how to Shock-Proof Your Strategies from Market Noise! — with a Risk-Sensing GPS that has an 82 year history of steering clear of the 35 major market panics!

Discover your Trading Advatange Today and See what Efrem’s Volatility GPS has to say about today’s markets.

Disclaimer:  Review Disclosures On-Line at: TradingTimeAndPrice.com

Synopsis of Current Market State:

As mentioned on the October 5th update, we said:

“To identify the onset of this risk event, it will be crucial to watch market action at the following time and price coordinates.  The time zone of focus for the initiation of a risk event is especially after the evening session of Oct 5th (1:20 AM Eastern — since markets are closed tonight, Sunday, Oct 7th Evening/Overnight Session applies) and into October 9th/10th, 2012.  The critical price level trigger where sellers will try to attack the market with high energy — lots of trade-flow and conviction in terms of trade size — is 2797 to 2795.25.”

This is precisely what occurred in today’s session so far. We have yet to breach the critical level for the S&P 500, as indicated below, and also mentioned in the October 5th update.

If the price trades below this critical support zone for more than 160 minutes — at any point in the interval of Oct 7th, 9th,  or including the window near the 19th, 22nd into the 24th and up to Oct. 29th, 2012 — then extreme downside risk of well over 100 points in the NASDAQ is a high potential. THE CORRESPONDING LEVEL THAT WILL OPEN UP A MAJOR DOWNSIDE EVENT FOR THE S&P 500 DECEMBER FUTURES IS A BREAK BELOW 1437 (especially high downside volatility will develop when price trades below this levels for at least 160 minutes). The downside risk levels start out at 1426.50, then 1398 to 1393, and 1380.75, 1376.50, 1374 to 1371. 

Until such time that these levels are breached, the existing intermediate term trend will remain in tact. There are 3 S&P 500 Futures (Dec. Contract) price levels above today’s high that will offer overhead resistance until such critical risk points are triggered. The first line of potential resistance is: 1467 to 1469;  the second resistance cluster is: 1472, 1473.25, and 1474.50; and the outer resistance band extends from 1477.25 to 1479.75.  In the event of a major headline driven event, then the extreme outer price spike limits are 1484 to 1489.75.

But once risk event trigger levels are breached, all bullish bets are off, leading to a major down-wave into end of October –

Stay Tuned daily for updates on specific downside time-zones, as well as overhead resistance and base-line support levels.  Special Statements will be posted regularly in the Key Levels Daily Blog at TradingTimeAndPrice.com.

For maximum visibility of bearish market structure development on the NASDAQ and S&P 500, regardless of your trading style, your favorite indicators and market analysis logic should currently be centered on the 160 and 99 minute chart. This will enable you to more easily monitor selling pressure and identify bearish divergences. To identify any bullish divergences that may develop after the initial wave of selling activity, it is best to apply your studies to a both the 23 minute and 37 minute charts.

There is enough Bottled Energy in the NASDAQ 100 Dec. Futures and the S&P 500 Dec. Contract, to set off a chain reaction of selling this October, with potentially the fastest range expansion since the late summer 2011 Euro-Crisis. What is most alarming is that the VIX Volatility Index is just coming off exceptionally low levels for an extended period, and is threatening to break top-side when it trades above the 16.60 level (especially when holding above level for at least 144 minutes).  This market condition will turn complacent market players into panic-stricken speculators.

In light of the fiscal cliff uncertainty, of particular note is the excessive forward-looking weakness, as seen by corporate purchasing managers, in consumer spending, sales pipe-line activity, and capital budgets of technology related goods. Furthermore, persistent semiconductor, manufacturing, and transportation weakness will also become a telling sign of market strain and future economic head-winds. Order flow and volume action in the NASDAQ 100 Futures today and since September 24th  illustrates these concerns.

The TimeMapper technology at TradingTimeAndPrice.com is currently monitoring momentum pressures and upcoming order-flow changes in the key decision-makers and market players — across a wide scope of time-frames — that are influencing a bearish market structure for the NASDAQ 100 Futures market  (December Contract).

Stay current at TradingTimeAndPrice.com to get the inside view of high-impact events affecting your markets! Be sure to check out our Live Twitter Feed @TradinTimePrice and our parent company Twitter Handle @NakedSwanTrader for the latest forward commentary on the premier sectors and securities offering relative strength and weakness.  NakedSwanTrading.com and TradingPriceAndTime.com are associated trade-names of Naked Swan Trading Inc.

____________________________________________________

Disclaimer/Disclosures: Prepared by Naked Swan Trading Inc. For subscription inquiries e-mail to: support@TradingTimeAndPrice.com. This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. The manner of circulation and distribution of this document may be restricted by law. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of, and to observe, such restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. No person associated with Naked Swan Trading Inc. is obligated to call or initiate contact with you for the purposes of elaborating or following up on the information contained in this document. The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither Naked Swan Trading Inc. , nor any person connected with Naked Swan Trading Inc., accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While NakedSwanTrading Inc. endeavor is to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent him from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without prior written consent. In so far as this report includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.

It is both prudent and required that YOU, the USER, become aware — and fully acknowledge — the terms set forth in the full list of Disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Disclaimers, Policy Statements, and Terms of Usage, as displayed and referenced (via links) at the base of each TradingTimeAndPrice.com web page.

Copyright 2012 © All Rights Reserved, TradingTimeAndPrice.com on behalf of Naked Swan Trading Inc. | Restricted and Confidential Information

 

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A SPECIAL NASDAQ 100 & S&P 500 Market Statement from The Research Desk of Efrem Hoffman | Issued Friday, October 5th, 2012

A SPECIAL & HIGHLY TIME RELEVANT NOTICE from The Research Desk of Efrem Hoffman | Issued Friday, October 5th, 2012 |  Bottled Energy in this NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 to set off a Severe Tail-Risk Event this October.

Synopsis of Current Market State:

There is enough Bottled Energy in the NASDAQ 100 Dec. Futures and the S&P 500 Dec. Contract, to set off a chain reaction of selling this October, with potentially the fastest range expansion since the late summer 2011 Euro-Crisis. What is most alarming is that the VIX Volatility Index is just coming off exceptionally low levels for an extended period, and is threatening to break top-side when it trades above the 16.60 level (especially when holding above level for at least 144 minutes).  This market condition will turn complacent market players into panic-stricken speculators.

In light of the fiscal cliff uncertainty, of particular note is the excessive forward-looking weakness, as seen by corporate purchasing managers, in consumer spending, sales pipe-line activity, and capital budgets of technology related goods. Furthermore, persistent semiconductor, manufacturing, and transportation weakness will also become a telling sign of market strain and future economic head-winds. Order flow and volume action in the NASDAQ 100 Futures today and since September 24th  illustrates these concerns.

The TimeMapper technology at TradingTimeAndPrice.com is currently monitoring momentum pressures and upcoming order-flow changes in the key decision-makers and market players — across a wide scope of time-frames — that are influencing a bearish market structure for the NASDAQ 100 Futures market  (December Contract).

To identify the onset of this risk event, it will be crucial to watch market action at the following time and price coordinates.  The time zone of focus for the initiation of a risk event is especially after the evening session of Oct 5th (1:20 AM Eastern — since markets are closed tonight, Sunday, Oct 7th Evening/Overnight Session applies) and into October 9th/10th, 2012.  The critical price level trigger where sellers will try to attack the market with high energy — lots of trade-flow and conviction in terms of trade size — is 2797 to 2795.25.

If the price trades below this critical support zone for more than 160 minutes — at any point in the interval of Oct 7th, 9th,  or including the window near the 19th, 22nd into the 24th and up to Oct. 29th, 2012 — then extreme downside risk of well over 100 points in the NASDAQ is a high potential. THE CORRESPONDING LEVEL THAT WILL OPEN UP A MAJOR DOWNSIDE EVENT FOR THE S&P 500 DECEMBER FUTURES IS A BREAK BELOW 1437 (especially high downside volatility will develop when price trades below this levels for at least 160 minutes). The downside risk levels start out at 1426.50, then 1398 to 1393, and 1380.75, 1376.50, 1374 to 1371. 

Until such time that either one of these levels are breached, the existing intermediate term trend will remain in tact. There are 3 S&P 500 Futures (Dec. Contract) price levels above today’s high that will offer overhead resistance until such critical risk points are triggered. The first line of potential resistance is: 1467 to 1469;  the second resistance cluster is: 1472, 1473.25, and 1474.50; and the outer resistance band extends from 1477.25 to 1479.75.  In the event of a major headline driven event, then the extreme outer price spike limits are 1484 to 1489.75.

But once risk event trigger levels are breached, all bullish bets are off, leading to a major down-wave into end of October —

Stay Tuned daily for updates on specific downside time-zones, as well as overhead resistance and base-line support levels.  Special Statements will be posted regularly in the Key Levels Daily Blog at TradingTimeAndPrice.com.

For maximum visibility of bearish market structure development, regardless of your trading style, your favorite indicators and market analysis logic should currently be centered on the 160 and 99 minute chart. This will enable you to more easily monitor selling pressure and identify bearish divergences. To identify any bullish divergences that may develop after the initial wave of selling activity, it is best to apply your studies to a both the 23 minute and 37 minute charts.

Stay current at TradingTimeAndPrice.com to get the inside view of high-impact events affecting your markets! Be sure to check out our Live Twitter Feed @TradinTimePrice and our parent company Twitter Handle @NakedSwanTrader for the latest forward commentary on the premier sectors and securities offering relative strength and weakness.  NakedSwanTrading.com and TradingPriceAndTime.com are associated trade-names of Naked Swan Trading Inc.

____________________________________________________

Disclaimer/Disclosures:  Prepared by Naked Swan Trading Inc. For subscription inquiries e-mail to: support@TradingTimeAndPrice.com. This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. The manner of circulation and distribution of this document may be restricted by law. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of, and to observe, such restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. No person associated with Naked Swan Trading Inc. is obligated to call or initiate contact with you for the purposes of elaborating or following up on the information contained in this document. The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither Naked Swan Trading Inc. , nor any person connected with Naked Swan Trading Inc., accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While NakedSwanTrading Inc. endeavor is to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent him from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without prior written consent. In so far as this report includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. It is both prudent and required that YOU, the USER, become aware — and fully acknowledge — the terms set forth in the full list of Disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Disclaimers, Policy Statements, and Terms of Usage, as displayed and referenced (via links) at the base of each TradingTimeAndPrice.com web page.

Copyright 2012 © All Rights Reserved, TradingTimeAndPrice.com on behalf of Naked Swan Trading Inc. |  Restricted and Confidential Information

 

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Special Market Statement — Downside Volatility is Set to Ignite at Critical Levels with Range Expansion into Oct 3rd-5th, & Mid/Late Oct

A SPECIAL & HIGHLY TIME RELEVANT NOTICE from The Research Desk of Efrem Hoffman | Issued Wednesday, October 3rd, 2012 |  Bottled Energy in this S&P 500 to set off a Severe Tail-Risk Event this October – potentially fastest range expansion since the late summer 2011 Euro-Crisis.

Synopsis of Current Market State:

There is enough Bottled Energy in this S&P 500 Futures Market (Dec. Contract), to set off a chain reaction of selling this October, with potentially the fastest range expansion since the late summer 2011 Euro-Crisis. What is most alarming is that the VIX Volatility Index is just coming off exceptionally low levels for an extended period, and is threatening to break top-side when it trades above the 16.60 level (especially when holding above level for at least 144 minutes).  This market condition will turn complacent market players into panic-stricken speculators.

In light of the fiscal cliff uncertainty, of particular note is the excessive forward-looking weakness, as seen by corporate purchasing managers, in consumer spending, sales pipe-line activity, and capital budgets of technology related goods. Furthermore, persistent semiconductor, manufacturing, and transportation weakness will also become a telling sign of market strain and future economic head-winds. Order flow and volume action in the NASDAQ 100 Futures (December Contract) illustrates these concerns.

The TimeMap technology at TradingTimeAndPrice.com is currently monitoring momentum pressures and upcoming order-flow changes in the key decision-makers and market players — across a wide scope of time-frames — that are influencing a bearish market structure for the NASDAQ 100 Futures market  (December Contract).

To identify the onset of this risk event, it will be crucial to watch market action at the following time and price coordinates.  The time zone of focus is especially after the evening session of Oct 5th (1:20 AM Eastern) and into October 9th, 2012.  The critical price level where sellers will try to attack the market with high energy — lots of trade-flow and conviction in terms of trade size — is 2795.25.  The 2755.50 price level is a longer term area of support that, when breached to the downside, has high potential to ignite another bearish risk event.

The Bottom-Line Market Intelligence for the S&P 500 Futures (December Contract) 

To keep you out of trading market noise today, and into October 5th, the immediate support and resistance levels to take note of, along with the time frames for optimally observing price action, volume structure, and order-flow are discussed below:

After the open TODAY, but especially starting after 11:20 AM (Eastern) or near 1:20 PM (Eastern), and no later than the overnight session into Oct 4th, if price trades below 1440.25, then 1437.25 to 1436.25 is the first air pocket to contend with. Especially anytime after 1:20 PM (Eastern) or in the overnight session into Oct 4th and 5th, if and when price trades below 1437 (for at least 160 minutes), then next stop on the way down is near the price zone of 1429.50 to 1426.75.

If, especially prior to the Oct 5th close, price trades below 1422.75 (for at least 160 minutes) then a violent wave of selling has high potential to overtake the market, and bring prices back down to the 1398 to 1393 level. Following a short covering market bounce, thereafter, we will need to be on the look-out for another wave of selling  in later October (reasserting itself in a few sectors near the 19th, or as late as Oct 24th to 29th across virtually all sectors), that has the potential to test the 1380.75 to 1371 price level. 

To keep market scalpers out of trouble, the 1443.50, and 1442.75 to 1437.50 price zone is the neutral zone for the trading day.

Look for sellers to attack the market on any intra-day short lived up-spikes into the first level of resistance, which is in the price zone from 1443.75, and 1444.50 to 1446.50. 

Strong Residual Overhead Resistance from the previous significant local peak is at 1449.75 and 1451 — outside of a major news-driven event, these levels are unlikely. The big threat is to the down-side, and it is important to focus on the levels identified in the paragraphs above.

For maximum visibility of market structure, regardless of your trading style, your market analysis should currently be centered on the 2 min and 1 minute chart for scalping purposes this morning, but for traders looking to capture the emerging episode of downside range expansion, it is best to apply your favorite indicators and market logic to the 160 minute chart. This will enable you to more easily monitor selling pressure and identify bearish divergences.  To identify any bullish divergences that may develop after the initial wave of selling activity, it is best to apply your studies to a both the 25 minute and 60 minute charts.

Stay current at TradingTimeAndPrice.com to get the inside view of high-impact events affecting your markets! Be sure to check out our Live Twitter Feed @TradinTimePrice and our parent company Twitter Handle @NakedSwanTrader for the latest forward commentary on the premier sectors and securities offering relative strength and weakness.  NakedSwanTrading.com and TradingPriceAndTime.com are associated trade-names of Naked Swan Trading Inc.

____________________________________________________

Disclaimer/Disclosures:  Prepared by Naked Swan Trading Inc. For subscription inquiries e-mail to: support@TradingTimeAndPrice.com. This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. The manner of circulation and distribution of this document may be restricted by law. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of, and to observe, such restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. No person associated with Naked Swan Trading Inc. is obligated to call or initiate contact with you for the purposes of elaborating or following up on the information contained in this document. The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither Naked Swan Trading Inc. , nor any person connected with Naked Swan Trading Inc., accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While NakedSwanTrading Inc. endeavor is to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent him from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without prior written consent. In so far as this report includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. It is both prudent and required that YOU, the USER, become aware — and fully acknowledge — the terms set forth in the full list of Disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Disclaimers, Policy Statements, and Terms of Usage, as displayed and referenced (via links) at the base of each TradingTimeAndPrice.com web page.

Copyright 2012 © All Rights Reserved, TradingTimeAndPrice.com on behalf of Naked Swan Trading Inc. |  Restricted and Confidential Information

 

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VIX Volatility Index Warns of Clear and Present Danger Ahead for S&P 500 & NASDAQ

A SPECIAL & HIGHLY TIME RELEVANT NOTICE from The Research Desk of Efrem Hoffman | Issued Tuesday, October 2nd, 2012

Market is on the verge of an imminent and severe volatility event — particularly as the VIX Volatility Index breaks above 16.60 level [now at 15.71 as of today's close] — to commence as early as the next 24 hours and before mid month, with rolling market turbulence, pronounced into the end of October, 2012 — Stay Tuned! — details to follow in this evening’s session in the Key Levels Daily Blog of TradingTimeAndPrice.com

Stay current at TradingTimeAndPrice.com to get the inside view of high-impact events affecting your markets! Be sure to check out our Live Twitter Feed @TradinTimePrice and our parent company Twitter Handle @NakedSwanTrader for the latest forward commentary on the premier sectors and securities offering relative strength and weakness.  NakedSwanTrading.com and Trading PriceAndTime.com are associated trade-names of Naked Swan Trading Inc.

____________________________________________________

Disclaimer/Disclosures:  Prepared by Naked Swan Trading Inc. For subscription inquiries e-mail to: support@TradingTimeAndPrice.com. This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. The manner of circulation and distribution of this document may be restricted by law. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of, and to observe, such restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. No person associated with Naked Swan Trading Inc. is obligated to call or initiate contact with you for the purposes of elaborating or following up on the information contained in this document. The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither Naked Swan Trading Inc. , nor any person connected with Naked Swan Trading Inc., accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While NakedSwanTrading Inc. endeavor is to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent him from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without prior written consent. In so far as this report includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. It is both prudent and required that YOU, the USER, become aware — and fully acknowledge — the terms set forth in the full list of Disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Disclaimers, Policy Statements, and Terms of Usage, as displayed and referenced (via links) at the base of each TradingTimeAndPrice.com web page.

Copyright 2012 © All Rights Reserved, TradingTimeAndPrice.com on behalf of Naked Swan Trading Inc. |  Restricted and Confidential Information

 

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From the Trading Research Desk of Efrem Hoffman | issued Mon. Oct 1st, 2012 — relative weakness to continue into October

Bottom-Line Note: Relative weakness for broad equities to continue into October (looking to fade S&P 500 up-spikes at key S&P 500 overhead resistance levels, as identified in the Sept 28th, 2012 Key Levels Daily Blog – especially near upper resistance, in the event of any interim up-spikes in the Euro that may occur into Oct 5th / 9th time zone. Stay tuned for fine-tuned updates.

Technology issues will likely show relative weakness coming off of any intra-day up-spikes, as a result of Fiscal Cliff concerns and uncertainty, which is negatively impacting Technology Purchasing Manager Activity.

AAPL and MSFT will need to be watched closely. We must be very cautious as we approach the Oct 19th / 29th period, especially in the event of any strong intra-month rallies that may occur after this initial weakness into key support ( as identified in the Sept 28th, 2012 Key Levels Daily Blog)
Recent Tweets at TradinTimPrice

TradingTimeAndPrice.com shows relative strength equity leaders in Gold, Silver & Platinum complex going forward are symbols:  PAL , SLW , KCG , GTU, NEM

TradingTimeAndPrice.com indicates Strong Bullish Bias with strong floor of support developing this fall for Agri-Business symbols– RJA, DJUBS, POT

TradingTimeAndPrice.com issues Green Light For Natural GAS — Symbols for Best-in-Class Market Plays: UNG , GAZ, NFX , CRK , GST ,CHK , LNMIY

____________________________________________________

Disclaimer/Disclosures: Prepared by Naked Swan Trading Inc. For subscription inquiries e-mail to: support@TradingTimeAndPrice.com. This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. The manner of circulation and distribution of this document may be restricted by law. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of, and to observe, such restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. No person associated with Naked Swan Trading Inc. is obligated to call or initiate contact with you for the purposes of elaborating or following up on the information contained in this document. The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither Naked Swan Trading Inc. , nor any person connected with Naked Swan Trading Inc., accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While NakedSwanTrading Inc. endeavor is to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent him from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without prior written consent. In so far as this report includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. It is both prudent and required that YOU, the USER, become aware — and fully acknowledge — the terms set forth in the full list of Disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Disclaimers, Policy Statements, and Terms of Usage, as displayed and referenced (via links) at the base of each TradingTimeAndPrice.com web page.

Copyright 2012 © All Rights Reserved, TradingTimeAndPrice.com on behalf of Naked Swan Trading Inc. | Restricted and Confidential Information

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Volatility Calendar Shows Actionable Volatility Opportunities to Re-Ignite Selling Pressure into Tuesday, Oct. 2nd/2012

From the Trading Research Desk of Efrem Hoffman   |  issued Fri, Sept. 28th

The Bottom-Line | Friday, September 28th, 2012: — All Analysis, below, is in reference to the e-Mini S&P 500 December Futures Contract

As re-iterated, below, from the September, 19th risk-intelligence briefing, the S&P 500 e-Mini (December Futures Contract) has now entered the first period of elevated volatility risk.

The residual resistance levels left over from Thursday’s volatility movement starts out at 1445.50, 1446.50, and 1447.75.  In the event of an unexpected news-driven event, there is near-term risk of a very short-lived up-spike into 1451.25, and 1451.50.

1435.50 to 1439.50 is a zone of balance that will try to separate the bulls from the bears.

NOTE: The following closing bar times on the 90 minute price bar chart are in reference to TradeStation Session Time (Eastern) on the e-Mini S&P 500 Continuous Futures Contract (December basis pricing)

Actionable Trading Coordinates, as reflected by the Time, Price, and Observation Data Interval are:

10:30 AM to 1:30 PM on September 28th, 2012 — In this time zone, residual overhead resistance is: 1445.50 to 1447.50

If price remains below the 1447.75 to 1445.75 price zone for the remainder of this session and into Oct 1st at 1:30 AM, and then trades below 1442 thereafter, then major selling pressure is likely into key support levels below.

Alternatively, if price trades above 1447.75 after 1:30PM on September 28th, then 1451.25 to 1451.50 offers overhead resistance, and even if in the event of an unexpected news driven up-spike to 1467.75 to 1468.50, the S&P 500 Futures has very high potential to rollover sharply prior to High Noon (Eastern) on October 2nd.

To identify potential market divergences, at such top-side market extremes, traders should apply their studies and indicators to the 34 minute and 55 minute chart time-frames (if prior to October 2nd at High Noon Eastern) and the 55 and 89 minute charts if after this time, but prior to Oct 8th at 7:30PM (especially if prior to mid-night on Oct 5th).

In conjunction with longer term time-frames indicated, for scalping at resistance, it is best to track your short term indicators on the 5 minute and 8 minute time frame prior to High Noon (Eastern) on Oct 2nd, 2012. For scalping at resistance thereafter, and prior to Oct 5th, apply your indicators to the 8 min. and 13 min. charts.

In conjunction with longer term time-frames indicated, for scalping at support, it is best to track your short term indicators on the 13 minute and 21 minute time frame prior to High Noon (Eastern) on Oct 2nd, 2012.  For scalping at support thereafter, and prior to Oct 5th, apply your indicators to the 21 min. and 34 min. charts.

Note: These suggested market observation intervals (time-frames) change daily, and are updated as frequently as they need to stay relevant, based on how the market players are positioned for the upcoming trading cycle.  This timing feature is designed to shock-proof your strategies from market noise and enhance the visibility of emerging market trends. Most importantly, it gives traders the flexibility of using their own indicators at the right times, and at the optimal level of magnification, so that YOUR favorite market patterns and market structure strategies stand out –> and become obvious.

Downside Risks during the interval starts out at: 1426.75, 1424.50, 1423.25, 1419.50, 1411.25, 1409.75, 1404.25, 1398.

In the event of a negative macro-event, which is a real threat that could come out of the housing and manufacturing sectors, then 1381 to 1373 is a secondary zone of risk.

As we advance into later October, after the initial bout of turbulence, on an intermediate term basis, in the outside event of a strong bullish macro-currency headline or news-driven up-spike, then 1472, 1478.50, 1484.50, and 1488.50 are the extreme outer price levels that offers major resistance.

Key Calendar Dates when Market Volatility has High Potential to be Amplified 

As expected from our market calls last week, the prior bullish wave that initiated with a volume surge near September 13th has already topped out in momentum, and has rolled over as expected in our previous commentary.  Downside Momentum will likely build from here inside the key dates discussed.

The dominant bullish impulse wave that initiated with a volume surge on September 6th shows signs of capping momentum, and rolling over with a more significant downside volatility event, starting near the ominous and coincidental date of October 19th, and no later than Oct. 24th to 27th/29th, 2012 time zone.

The near-term trend is just entering a period where all the market dominoes are lining up to topple, except here, not all dominoes are of equal weight — some market players have more clout, others more money behind their investments, and some with more conviction in their decision-making, especially when the pressure is on for protecting their vested interests.

Like in the game of poker, the key is to size up who the players are in any given session. At TradingTimeAndPrice.com, Efrem Hoffman, the company founder, pays particular attention to the gaps in information flow among trading participants. As in reading between the lines, it is often what is not seen that matters most. Without perfect knowledge, as is ALWAYS the case in the trading world, we can, at best, try to look through the lens for which decision-makers, of different types, observe market flow, momentum, and valuation levels.

To perform this seemingly intractable task, Efrem has engineered a proprietary process that takes the entire data-base of market valuations, going back to the first transaction ever recorded in the S&P 500; and partitions the range of price action into an optimally ordered sequence of different sized time slices — across all the relevant trading intervals.

To add a human element to this mathematical abstraction, we can think of longer term traders, who have the capacity to carry bigger positions (without slippage) than shorter term market players, as those which acquire data less frequently, and perceive changes in price momentum at slower rates and account for fewer data points in history, when making judgments about the future. Rigorous experimental and real-time analysis shows that it is crucial to account for all types of market players, across the widest spectrum possible — aggregating time slices, that extend from even below the time-scales of today’s ultra high-frequency algo-bots, all the way up to the one-trade-for-life crowd.

By doing so, and through application of next generation quantum computing gaming strategies, we have created a magic trick, called the Momentum Perception Map ( MPM ). It allows us to spot and fine-tune our recognition of extreme points of market strain, and the episodes of fear and greed that usually precede critical inflection points in both price and volatility. MPMs light up a forward series of connected points on a price chart, at the time and price coordinates that always seem to mysteriously match up with both short-term and long-range future measurements of zero momentum crossing points — as reflected by traditional price momentum indicators, such as MACD and RSI.

This reverse engineered process is like all magic tricks — there is an underlying order that creates the orientation. To account for the full mix of market players, that may show up on a given trading session, we color code and overlay these points of zero price momentum (we will often refer to them as “balance points” or “isobars”) for each trader time frame — so that they visually and intuitively correspond to the relative observation interval and size of each market player.

As in the game of dominoes, to maximize the potential for a toppling event, there is an optimal ratio between the height of a domino (size of a trader) and the distance (relative interval of observation) between each. In the markets, it’s all about identifying those special situations “WHEN” the longer term traders, with more clout, will be perceiving changes in momentum (or shifting their emotional sentiment, as driven by their momentum perception of the future) before shorter term market players.

This Map enables traders of any level to quickly infer future changes in momentum from afar, with high levels of conviction and clarity — by simply observing the distance that the current market price is above or below the zero-line. For instance, when price is above (below) the line, momentum is perceived as positive (negative).

What is most powerful and unique about the TradingPriceAndTime Research Framework is that it allows the trader to see, close up, through observing the slope (positive for bulls; negative for bears) of the zero-line, what no other momentum oscillator can offer — and that is Sensing Changes in the Path of Least Resistance of Price Momentum and the Speed of Price Action toward Support and Resistance, even during those times in the future when no price transactions are crossing the tape; and when there is no apparent price impact resulting from the passage or lack of headline-driven events. 

Although each trader group time frame has a specific path of least resistance to future motion, the broader market movements are influenced by the collision of mass market perceptions; and what Efrem has discovered over his 16 years of market observation, is that an elaborate mathematical process is needed to make logical sense of all this information — particularly about how the market’s INNER STRUCTURE of Decision-Makers interact to produce the less transparent and collective OUTPUT patterns (be it, of price or other financial variables), as seen, and followed by our competitors.

In today’s analysis of the trading markets, Efrem is currently sensing high-impact changes in the path of least resistance of price momentum, across 9 trading time horizons, each having future balance points of zero momentum that are self-converging, simultaneously, at key resistance levels.

What is most alarming is that this inner assembly of momentum measurements has an 82 year history (across the DOW and S&P 500) of setting off virtually everyone of the major 35 market panics and manias, including, but not limited to the infamous 1929, 1937, 1987, 2000, and 2008 market crises; as well as Efrem’s highly anticipated outlook for rolling episodes of severe market turbulence in late 2012 through 2014 and beyond. These sweet spots of critical market activity are regularly identified, updated, and addressed as actionable trading guide-lines in the TradingTimeAndPrice Volatility Calendar and Key-Levels Daily Blog.

These special configurations, where the market dominoes line up, are also laid out visually on our Bi-Weekly TimeMaps. They serve as Your Personal GPS for Putting Boundaries Around Future Events, especially those Tracing Out the Price and Time Coordinates of Impending Tail-Risk Situations. The next Time-Map will be updated before the end of the trading day on Monday, October 1st, 2012.

What is most unique about these trading coordinates, and an industry first, is that they are engineered to tell you the dominant trading time frames that key decision makers will be using to measure price action and value. This feature is designed to elevate your view from observing price cycles (mere, output patterns) to Seeing the Decision Cycles that Drive Price and Volatility Action. The MISSION is to Shock-Proof Your Strategy from Market Noise – Keeping You Focused on Making Bold and Decisive Trading Decisions on the Right Side of Key Support & Resistance Levels.

 

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Disclaimer/Disclosures:  Prepared by Naked Swan Trading Inc. For subscription inquiries e-mail to: support@TradingTimeAndPrice.com. This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. The manner of circulation and distribution of this document may be restricted by law. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of, and to observe, such restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. No person associated with Naked Swan Trading Inc. is obligated to call or initiate contact with you for the purposes of elaborating or following up on the information contained in this document. The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither Naked Swan Trading Inc. , nor any person connected with Naked Swan Trading Inc., accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While NakedSwanTrading Inc. endeavor is to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent him from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without prior written consent. In so far as this report includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. It is both prudent and required that YOU, the USER, become aware — and fully acknowledge — the terms set forth in the full list of Disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Disclaimers, Policy Statements, and Terms of Usage, as displayed and referenced (via links) at the base of each TradingTimeAndPrice.com web page.

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