Executive Market Briefing | Issued Wed, Dec 5th, 2012 @ 4:55 PM ET | The Path Ahead for the NASDAQ 100 & S&P 500

Executive Market Briefing | Issued Wed, Dec 5th, 2012 @ 4:55 PM ET  |  The Path Ahead for the NASDAQ 100 & S&P 500

Executive Market Briefing from The Research Desk of Efrem Hoffman | Issued Wednesday, Dec 5th, 2012 @ 4:55 PM ET | The Path Ahead for the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 e-Mini Futures Market 

Below is the latest Time Map of Current Risk Events and upcoming Trading Opportunities in the NASDAQ 100 e-Mini Futures, with Negative Implications for the S&P 500 e-Mini into the Spring of 2013.

(Click on the Image to Enlarge):

Dec 2012-Feb 2013 Time Map of Tail-Risk Events and Trading Opportunities for the NASDAQ 100 e-Mini Futures, with Negative Implications for the S&P 500 e-Mini and Broad Markets into the Spring of 2013.

Note: We have now entered one of the first in a series of Key Risk Intervals (within the Dec. and Jan. time zone), and as expected, the equity markets have weakened off the recent high (both in nominal terms and especially in recent days with respect to the advance in the Euro), and strong bearish divergences between the weaker NASDAQ 100 (largely due to technology infrastructure purchasing manager uncertainty from Fiscal Cliff issues, as well as recent AAPL related news events and deflationary risks coming off a high relative valuation ) and large caps multi-nationals (DOW and S&P 500 — which get a large part of their revenues in Euro currency — thus when the Euro is stronger, the currency conversion of profits back to US Dollars, for which US market equities are priced, add a tail wind to the US Dollar denominated market price on days when the Euro rises). This divergence is expected to result in a very large-scale broad market-wide sell off in December Risk Interval, and especially into the January, February, and potentially into the Spring of 2013.

The bottom line for today is the following:

The market risk profile has not changed, and I still see very high potential of a very significant asymmetric tail-risk event right into the Spring period — NASDAQ is the weakest link. The big note to take home is that the S&P is seriously deteriorating relative to the Euro — even when a small reversal of Euro takes place, sharp setbacks will likely strike large multi-national equities, which derive a large part of their profit from Euro-land operations. This will likely narrow the wide divergence between NASDAQ under-performance and the broader markets (a large part due to AAPL news and overall technology infrastructure purchasing manager uncertainty). The 1431.50 price level is current intermediate overhead resistance for the S&P 500 e-Mini Futures (Dec Basis value). Long term overhead resistance, as indicated on the latest TradingTimeAndPrice.com Time Map Video (referenced nearer to the base of this briefing) discussed remains unchanged, with very long range depression of equity prices, with virtually no material growth following the expected tail-risk event.

S&P/Euro Ratio is falling — so this indicates that the correlation of the broad US Equity Markets, and especially the NASDAQ is becoming less correlated relative to the Euro, particularly on up days in the Euro (due to other idiosyncratic risk factors more prevalent in the US markets), but on down days in the Euro the downside acceleration will be highly correlated. This type of asymmetry in the correlation on up and down days in the Euro is a serious sign of weakness in the domestic US equity markets.

The most dangerous period in December will likely kick off, especially when S&P 500 e-mini Futures price trades below 1382.50 for a complete trading day — the opportune interval for maximum downside acceleration to initiate would be somewhere in the time zone of Dec 12th, 13th or before or near Jan 1st. 1330 to 1300 is initial downside level, before potential interim market retracement.

If a major announcement is made that temporarily kicks the can down the road — then sign of strength would come in on the NASDAQ 100 in the event (not a forecast — only a scenario in the event S&P bearish support at 1382.50 (mentioned above) is not breached prior to this level getting hit) price levels exceed 2716 after Dec 10th or prior to Dec 16th. Even if this occurs, maximum upside potential would get trapped below the September highs (2798 to 2870) ; with a maximum long term spike risk (in event of positive macro events and geo-political developments) ranging from 2911.25 to 2949.75. Even in such a scenario, the Tail-Risk event into the Spring of 2013 is expected to yield a similar state of heightened crash risk for 2013.

Furthermore, the maximum expansion in volatility — likely to resolve itself in a market meltdown — would be strongest once NASDAQ 100 Futures (adjust contract month for Dec basis price level) trades below critical support at 2483.75 for at least one trading day. Thereafter, 2383.25 is the next interim price level, with possible retracement level thereafter near 2549.50 — before crashing back to at least August/October 2011 lows. Dec 20th into Feb 20th is the first in a series of extreme volatility risk intervals for 2013.

Given current and upcoming market conditions, the Time Map indicates that the 377 minute time frame for NASDAQ 100 and the 233 minute chart for the S&P 500 are the most appropriate observation time units to follow market action, identify trend strength, apply your favorite momentum and divergence indicators.

Although market manipulation appears to be rampant, it is this type of activity that sets up the best trades and investment opportunities. Time will certainly tell — the clock is ticking, and there is not much space left for the market to resolve itself. As Director of Macro-Market Strategy at TradingTimeAndPrice.com and NakedSwanTrading.com, I will be looking forward to actively focus my analysis and positioning into these opportunities, which are clearly stacked to the downside. This will set the stage for great buying opportunities in the strongest sector performers (on a relative basis) after the downside tail-risk pressures conclude.

By Combining this current market outlook (including Time Map of the NASDAQ 100 e-Mini Futures) with High Conviction & Proprietary Analytic Insights offered in the recent S&P 500 Futures (Dec.) Time Map video (posted last week — valid for several weeks),

you will be able to see the forward path of the S&P 500 market.

With the Time Map on your side, you will now know, with confidence, the optimal time frames to focus your observation of market action — including the time frames to apply for spotting the entry levels for the upcoming market opportunity, as well as the specific time frames to apply for both sticking with the trend (without getting chopped up in noise) and identifying the strategic exit level.

The time-line of the expected opportunity is also precisely identified with key support & resistance, and volatility escalation trigger levels (we also refer to them from time to time as Volatility Attack Points). When relevant updates are in order — i.e. as we are approaching key decision levels or triggering key volatility levels and entering extreme risk intervals — they will be posted in the key levels daily Blog section of TradingTimeAndPrice.com.

Moreover, vertical lines will also be overlaid on the Time Map to indicate important calendar dates of upcoming High Potential Risk and Opportunity Events –

– Pay particular attention to postings as we both approach these key date-lines and pass between them.

You should also review the Time Map section of TradingTimeAndPrice.com to observe the latest Momentum Jet Streams impacting the S&P 500.

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The Path Ahead for the S&P 500 e-Mini Futures (Dec. Contract) | Issued Thursday, Nov. 29th @ 9:49AM

The Path Ahead for the S&P 500 e-Mini Futures (Dec. Contract) |  Issued Thursday, Nov. 29th @ 9:49AM

Executive Market Briefing from The Research Desk of Efrem Hoffman | Issued Thursday, Nov 29th, 2012 @ 9:49 AM | The Path Ahead for the S&P 500 e-Mini Futures Market ( Same Analysis applies to the S&P 500 Cash Market, especially as we are entering the end of Dec. Futures expiration)

Below is the latest Time Map of Current Risk Events and upcoming Trading Opportunities, as we enter into Month end & Early Dec. 2012.

(Click on the Image to Enlarge):

S&P 500 e-Mini Futures Time Map — overlaid on 5 min. chart; For Big Picture View — see Monday’s Commentary and most recent Time Map Video — posted in Time Map Section

By Combining the Time Map Display above with High Conviction & Proprietary Analytic Insights offered in the recent Time Map video (posted last week — valid for several weeks),

you will be able to see the forward path of the S&P 500 market.

With the Time Map on your side, you will now know, with confidence, the optimal time frames to focus your observation of market action — including the time frames to apply for spotting the entry levels for the upcoming market opportunity, as well as the specific time frames to apply for both sticking with the trend (without getting chopped up in noise) and identifying the strategic exit level.

The time-line of the expected opportunity is also precisely identified with key support & resistance, and volatility escalation trigger levels (we also refer to them from time to time as Volatility Attack Points). When relevant updates are in order — i.e. as we are approaching key decision levels or triggering key volatility levels and entering extreme risk intervals — they will be posted in the key levels daily Blog section of TradingTimeAndPrice.com.

Moreover, vertical lines will also be overlaid on the Time Map to indicate important calendar dates of upcoming High Potential Risk and Opportunity Events –

– Pay particular attention to postings as we both approach these key date-lines and pass between them.

You should also review the Time Map section to observe the latest Momentum Jet Streams impacting the S&P 500.

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The Path Ahead for the S&P 500 Market | Issued Monday, Nov. 26th, 2012 @ 12:01 AM

The Path Ahead for the S&P 500 Market  |  Issued Monday, Nov. 26th, 2012 @ 12:01 AM

Executive Market Video Briefing from The Research Desk of Efrem Hoffman | Issued Monday, Nov 26th, 2012 @ 12:01 AM | The Path Ahead for the S&P 500 Cash Market ( Same Analysis applies to the S&P 500 e-Mini Futures, especially as we are entering the end of Dec. Futures expiration)

Below is the latest Time Map of upcoming Risk Events and Trading Opportunities, as we enter into the New Year 2013.

(Click on the Image to Enlarge):

S&P 500 Time Map — Issued Nov. 26th, 2012, 12:01 AM; Correction: In Green Area, 1353 should read 1253

By Combining the Time Map Display above with High Conviction & Proprietary Analytic Insights offered in the recent Time Map video (posted last week — valid for several weeks),

you will be able to see the forward path of the S&P 500 market.

With the Time Map on your side, you will now know, with confidence, the optimal time frames to focus your observation of market action — including the time frames to apply for spotting the entry levels for the upcoming market opportunity, as well as the specific time frames to apply for both sticking with the trend (without getting chopped up in noise) and identifying the strategic exit level.

The time-line of the expected opportunity is also precisely identified with key support & resistance, and volatility escalation trigger levels (we also refer to them from time to time as Volatility Attack Points). When relevant updates are in order — i.e. as we are approaching key decision levels or triggering key volatility levels and entering extreme risk intervals — they will be posted in the key levels daily Blog section of TradingTimeAndPrice.com.

Moreover, vertical lines will also be overlaid on the Time Map to indicate important calendar dates of upcoming High Potential Risk and Opportunity Events –

– Pay particular attention to postings as we both approach these key date-lines and pass between them.

You should also review the Time Map section to observe the latest Momentum Jet Streams impacting the S&P 500.

Read More

The Path Ahead for the S&P 500 Market | Issued Monday, Nov 26th, 2012 @ 12:01AM

The Path Ahead for the S&P 500 Market  | Issued Monday, Nov 26th, 2012 @ 12:01AM

Executive Market Video Briefing from The Research Desk of Efrem Hoffman | Issued Monday, Nov 26th, 2012 @ 12:01AM | The Path Ahead for the S&P 500 Cash Market ( Same Analysis applies to the S&P 500 e-Mini Futures, especially as we are entering the end of Dec. Futures expiration)

Below is the latest Time Map of upcoming Risk Events and Trading Opportunities, as we enter into the New Year 2013.

(Click on the Image to Enlarge):

By Combining the Time Map Display above with High Conviction & Proprietary Analytic Insights offered in the recent Time Map video (posted last week — valid for several weeks),

you will be able to see the forward path of the S&P 500 market, and know, with confidence, the optimal time frames to focus your observation of market action — including the time frames to apply for spotting the entry levels for the upcoming market opportunity, as well as the specific time frames to apply for both sticking with the trend (without getting chopped up in noise) and identifying the strategic exit level.

The time-line of the expected opportunity is also precisely identified with key support & resistance, and volatility escalation trigger levels (we also refer to them from time to time as Volatility Attack Points).

When relevant updates are in order — i.e. as we are approaching key decision levels or triggering key volatility levels and entering extreme risk intervals — they will be posted in the key levels daily Blog section of TradingTimeAndPrice.com. You should also review the Time Map section to observe the latest Momentum Jet Streams impacting the S&P 500.

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The Path Ahead for the S&P 500 Cash Market — Updated Time Map of S&P 500

Executive Market Video Briefing from The Research Desk of Efrem Hoffman | Issued Thursday, Nov 22nd, 2012 | The Path Ahead for the S&P 500 Cash Market ( Same Analysis applies to the S&P 500 e-Mini Futures, especially as we are entering the end of Dec. Futures expiration)

For instant access to the latest Time Map of upcoming Risk Events and Trading Opportunities, link to:

Applying High Conviction & Proprietary Analytics, the Time Map video, above, lays out the forward path of the S&P 500 market and indicates the optimal time frames to focus your observation of market action — including the time frames to apply for spotting the entry levels for the upcoming market opportunity, as well as the specific time frames to apply for both sticking with the trend (without getting chopped up in noise) and identifying the strategic exit level.

The time-line of the expected opportunity is also precisely identified with key support & resistance, and volatility escalation trigger levels (we also refer to them from time to time as Volatility Attack  Points).

When relevant updates are in order — i.e. as we are approaching key decision levels or triggering key volatility levels and entering extreme risk intervals — they will be posted in the key levels daily Blog section of TradingTimeAndPrice.com. Also review the Time Map section to observe the latest Momentum Jet Streams impacting the S&P 500.

All of us here at TradingTimeAndPrice.com — Wishing You a Happy Thanksgiving Celebration!

 

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Executive Market Briefing from The Research Desk of Efrem Hoffman | Issued Tuesday, Nov. 6th, 2012 | The Price Path Ahead

Executive Market Briefing from The Research Desk of Efrem Hoffman | Issued Tuesday, Nov. 6th, 2012 |  The Price Path Ahead for the S&P 500

Synopsis of Current Market State:

As mentioned on the October 5th update, we said:

If the price trades below the critical support zone of 2797 to 2795.25 for more than 160 minutes — at any point in the interval of Oct 7th, 9th,  or including the window near the 19th, 22nd into the 24th and up to Oct. 29th, 2012 — then extreme downside risk of well over 100 points in the NASDAQ is a high potential. THE CORRESPONDING LEVEL THAT WILL OPEN UP A MAJOR DOWNSIDE EVENT FOR THE S&P 500 DECEMBER FUTURES IS A BREAK BELOW 1437 (especially high downside volatility will develop when price trades below this levels for at least 160 minutes). The downside risk levels start out at 1426.50, then 1398 to 1393, and 1380.75, 1376.50, 1374 to 1371. 

The lower risk levels are wide open as the market now builds pent up energy for the next leg down in November.

Stay Tuned daily for updates on specific downside time-zones, as well as overhead resistance and base-line support levels.  Special Statements will be posted regularly in the Key Levels Daily Blog at TradingTimeAndPrice.com.

For maximum visibility of market structure development, while minimizing transaction noise, your favorite indicators and market analysis logic should currently be centered on the following time-frames, regardless of your trading style.  

For spotting Bullish S&P market divergences and monitoring counter-trend bounces with your indicators, focus on the 15 min, 24 min, and 35 minute charts.  

For identifying Bearish S&P market divergences and monitoring the resumption of the underlying downtrend, home-in on the 137 and 85 minute time frames.

There remains enough Bottled Energy in both the NASDAQ 100 Dec. Futures and the S&P 500 Dec. Contract, to set off a larger scale chain reaction of selling in November, especially from mid month onward, with potentially the fastest range expansion since the late summer 2011 Euro-Crisis, playing out in periodic waves of panic selling into Q1 2013.

What is most alarming is that the VXX Exchange Traded Fund, a widely followed gauge for future Volatility (VIX levels) is not only starting its ascent from exceptionally low historic levels, but its protracted basing structure has been building latent energy for a sharp spike in November and December. There are three momentum jet-streams in place that are expected to become synchronized on the following time-frames — starting with the 55 min, 89 min, and 144 minute.  When VXX levels trade above the 39.42 level for at least one trading session, volatility should be in lift off mode. Pay particular attention, should this level be taken out top-side in the interval of Nov 15th  to 30th, 2012. The next important volatility date to look out for, and the most telling for the intermediate to long term  outlook is the centered on the time window from Dec 7th to Dec 21st, 2012, particularly when VXX levels are trading above the all critical 41.68 level for at least one trading session. 

This market condition will turn complacent market players into panic-stricken speculators, as the VXX will commence a long and turbulent journey back to the high levels experienced near the depth of the Euro-Crisis in Oct 2011.

In the event that either the recent lows put in on Oct 30th or the near-term risk to the 1385 handle offer interim support, any “dead-cat bounces” should be met with formidable resistance near the price zone discussed below.  Thereafter, there is high potential for a steep and persistent sell off.

Until Mid November, the Time Map indicates that sector rotation and market distribution will become more pronounced, with increasing levels of disparity among both asset momentum flight paths and time-windows of potential risk events; thereby causing range-bound trading markets in this interval — between 1388.25 at the low end and 1440.50 to 1441.50 at the high end. In the event of a dead-cat bounce, 1430.50, 1433.75, 1435.25, 11436.50 are levels where volume would start to lighten up. Long term overhead resistance that was originally in place prior to the breakdown remains positioned near the 1463 to 14565.25 level. Traders will need to pay close attention to the balance point level of 1403.75 — if e-Mini trades below this level, it opens up a very larger move down before month end. Given a lot of chatter and news-flow going into the election and lame duck session concerning the fiscal cliff, all eyes will be on tech-laden NASDAQ for leadership. The most bearish scenario would be one last dead cat bounce above 2710 on the NASDAQ 100 Futures (Dec. Contract) to get the bulls trapped like rats slightly before or near mid-month. Whether the dead-cat bounce reaches this level or not, or materializes with any vigor, the bottom line is that not only the there are many sectors that are incrementally shifting their momentum jet-stream bias to breakdown mode as we approach mid month, but also the weakening momentum is now spreading across a wide array of New York Stock Exchange issues. This tells me with high confidence that the broad markets are at the cusp of a major bear attack — watch for signs to much lower prices by month end, after we pass the momentum cliff, particularly after mid-month — and especially accelerating when key levels, as discussed in the foregoing are breached.

Key interim levels on the next leg down are: 1389.75, 1387.50, 1383.50, 1378

with initial downside risks testing 1390 to 1385.25.

The Market is building pent up energy to do another leg down – one to two orders of magnitude larger than 1987, with regard to the number of synchronized decision-makers that are likely to flood the order book and create a series of toxic volatility events into 2013.

The 1421.50 to 1423.50 level is another important balance zone (separating the bears from neutral activity) for the month of November and December.

That means, if the market decides to oscillate around this price or sell into it (upon breaching this level with volume), it will set the stage for repeated attempts at cracking through the 1390 barrier.

There is one of two scenarios. The first starts somewhere in the interval after Nov. 12th or 13th, with highest risk on or after 16th, as well as 19th, 20th,  into at least Nov 22nd, 28th or 29th, 30th, when the S&P 500 cash market will likely challenge the 1385.25 level. At such time that this price is breached on high volume, the 1297 to 1289.75 price zone, dating back to June 2012, becomes wide open for the bears to attack with fierce velocity into the December/January and February period. The decision-maker momentum jet-streams that would be in control at that time would be sourced from the 221 and 85 minute time-frames, which is quite alarming, given that the orientation of their forward momentum flight-paths are strikingly similar to the 1987 crash, on a scale one to two orders of magnitude larger.

Here are some key intermediate dates to look out for, to crank up your risk-off meter: as early as Dec 7th, Dec 12th, 13th, 14th, 18th, 21st, 25th, 26th, all the way into Jan 24th or Jan 25th, and Jan 29th, Jan 30th, and near Feb 4, 10th, and into 26th, as well as into key dates near Feb 12th, 15th, 19th, 21st, 26th, 28th. Long term Overhead resistance remains firm at 1474.50 to 1475.50, 1477.50, and 1482.50, with its outer tail stretching out towards the 1484 to 1489.75  handle.

There is also a potential setup in place for the Euro. Should it trigger, it could spark a tail-risk event that could send the US Dollar Index rising, and take the S&P 500 cash market back just above the October 2011 lows, near the S&P 1140 level, which would become a real and present danger for 2013. In a similar note, a breakdown below 12639 on the DOW Futures (Dec Basis Pricing) for at least one week, would trigger a long-term market meltdown — challenging the 10,950 level from Oct 2011. There is tail-risk back to 2009 lows as early as prior to April and potentially before year end. From a trading perspective, one thing at a time; and it is the June 2012 and Oct 2011 levels that are expected to be tested, but when the end of April arrives, and if Oct 2011 lows is all the markets can test, then the a time stop would kick in, and the short idea generation would be put on hold for another day — sometime later in June or July and in all likelihood prior to the end of Oct 2013.  This down-wave may even be more pronounced, but time will tell.  In the mean time, be on high alert for volatility fireworks after this dead-cat bounce transforms into the first phase of a violent bear market this November and December.

On behalf of TradingTimeAndPrice.com, you are welcome to join me live on FuturesTalk On-Line Trading Educational Forum, for featured updates on high conviction turning points, as I monitor these market developments in real-time. A news announcement will be listed to indicate the time and dates of these special educational events.

TradingTimeAndPrice.com is currently monitoring momentum pressure and upcoming order-flow changes in the key decision-makers and market players — across a wide scope of time-frames — that are influencing a bearish market structure for the NASDAQ 100 Futures market  (December Contract).

This Wednesday, November 7th, 2012, 5:00PM – 6:00PM at the St. Andrew’s Club and Conference Center in Toronto, I will be on a Bloomberg Panel Discussion on the State of the Market at “Toronto Charts Day,” where David Scanlan, Canada Bureau Chief of Bloomberg News, will be moderating 4 veteran strategist and portfolio managers on their year-end market outlook and prospects for 2013.  

Disclaimer:  Review Disclosures On-Line at: TradingTimeAndPrice.com

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